The hot hand fallacy and the gambler’s fallacy: Two faces of subjective randomness?
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
The hot hand fallacy and the gambler's fallacy: two faces of subjective randomness?
The representativeness heuristic has been invoked to explain two opposing expectations--that random sequences will exhibit positive recency (the hot hand fallacy) and that they will exhibit negative recency (the gambler's fallacy). We propose alternative accounts for these two expectations: (1) The hot hand fallacy arises from the experience of characteristic positive recency in serial fluctuat...
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Sometimes people believe that a run of similar independent events will be broken (belief in the gambler's fallacy) but, other times, that such a run will continue (belief in the hot hand). Both of these opposite inductions have been explained as being due to belief in a law of small numbers. We argue that one factor that distinguishes these phenomena is people's beliefs about the randomness of ...
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The hot-hand fallacy has long been considered a widespread cognitive illusion with important consequences for decision-makers. A sports player may misinterpret a lucky streak of successful shots, and pursue a more aggressive strategy that hurts one’s performance. A physician prone to the hot-hand fallacy may also misinterpret random streaks of poor patient outcomes, and respond by treating the ...
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We investigate the “law of small numbers” using a data set on lotto gambling that allows us to measure players’ reactions to draws. While most players pick the same set of numbers week after week, we find that those who do change, react on average as predicted by the law of small numbers as formalized in recent behavioral theory. In particular, players tend to bet less on numbers that were draw...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Memory & Cognition
سال: 2004
ISSN: 0090-502X,1532-5946
DOI: 10.3758/bf03206327